Retirement Planner
Three scenarios and a 500-run Monte Carlo simulation. See when your money runs out, the size of the gap, and the monthly contribution that closes it.
Start with a worked example or enter your own numbers below.
Your details
Future savings changes
No future savings events. Add a raise, an inheritance, or a child starting college.
Debts
Loans you are still paying. We model the payoff, redirect freed payments to savings, and bill any balance left at retirement to your portfolio.
No debts. Add a mortgage, auto loan, or student loan to see its effect on your retirement.
Deeper analysis
Run 500 random scenarios.
Will your money survive the drawdown?
Your numbers
Projected at retirement
Age 65 · Base case
Target nest egg needed
75.0% income replacement, Social Security $26K/yr
Funding gap
Need $175/mo more
Savings trajectory
7% return, 3% inflation — historical average
All three scenarios compared
| Scenario | At retirement (age 65) | Gap or surplus | Drawdown | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pessimistic | $2.16M | Gap: −$2.39M | Depleted at age 79 | 5.0% return, 4.0% inflation |
| Base case | $3.19M | Gap: −$214K | Lasts to age 88 and beyond | 7.0% return, 3.0% inflation |
| Optimistic | $4.87M | Surplus: +$2.33M | Lasts to age 88 and beyond | 9.0% return, 2.0% inflation |
Are you on track? Fidelity benchmark comparison
Fidelity recommends having these multiples of your salary saved at each age milestone.
| Age | Target (× salary) | Target ($) | You (projected) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age 35 | 2× | $220,000 | $85,000 | Behind |
| Age 40 | 3× | $330,000 | $234,058 | Behind |
| Age 45 | 4× | $440,000 | $463,454 | On track |
| Age 50 | 6× | $660,000 | $809,619 | On track |
| Age 55 | 7× | $770,000 | $1,324,659 | On track |
| Age 60 | 8× | $880,000 | $2,082,971 | On track |
| Age 65 | 9× | $990,000 | $3,190,642 | On track |
How we calculated your number
- Annual income in today's dollars
- $82,50075.0% × $110,000 salary
- Inflation-adjusted at retirement
- $200,2493.0% inflation × 30 years
- Less: Social Security income
- −$26,400/yr$2K/month × 12
- Net needed from savings (annual)
- $136,169Income gap your portfolio must fill
- Required nest egg (4% rule)
- $3,404,236$136,169 ÷ 0.04
- Your projected balance
- $3,190,6427.0% annual return over 30 years
Guide, updated March 2026
How much do you need to retire? The complete guide for 2026
The most common retirement question is deceptively simple: “How much do I need?” The equally simple answer, “it depends”, is frustrating but true. What it depends on, and how to calculate your personal number, is what this guide explains.
The 4% rule: your starting framework
The most widely used retirement formula is the 4% rule, developed by William Bengen in 1994 and validated by the Trinity Study. The rule states: if you withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust for inflation each subsequent year, your portfolio has historically lasted 30 or more years in nearly all market conditions.
Your magic number = desired annual retirement income ÷ 0.04
If you want $80,000 a year in retirement income and Social Security covers $30,000, you need $50,000 from your portfolio. Divide by 0.04: you need a $1.25 million nest egg. Simple, but this framework needs important adjustments for your specific situation.
Covers the 4% rule, Fidelity benchmarks, Social Security and the Roth conversion window.
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How this is calculated
We grow your savings to retirement, then spend them down to life expectancy, and compare the result to the nest egg the 4% rule says you need.
The steps
- Compound your current savings + monthly contributions month by month at the scenario’s return, stepping contributions up each year and adding any savings events or freed-up debt payments.
- Set your income goal = desired replacement % × salary, grown by inflation to your retirement year, minus annual Social Security.
- Required nest egg = that net annual income ÷ 0.04 (the 4% rule), plus any debt still owed at retirement.
- Draw the portfolio down each year (growth minus inflation-adjusted spending and remaining debt payments) to see if and when it runs out.
- Repeat across three scenarios (pessimistic / base / optimistic) and an optional 500-run Monte Carlo for a success rate.
Assumptions
- Base case: 7% return, 3% inflation. 4% safe withdrawal rate.
- Constant real spending; Social Security amount entered by you.
Good to know
- Uses average returns, not real year-to-year sequence risk.
- Drawdown is not tax-aware. Projections are estimates, not guarantees.