A guideline that withdrawing about 4% of a portfolio in year one is likely to last 30 years.
The 4% rule is a starting estimate for retirement spending: withdraw 4% of your portfolio the first year, then adjust for inflation each year after. Historically this had a high chance of lasting at least 30 years. It implies a target nest egg of roughly 25 times annual expenses, though real plans should flex with markets and longevity.
A $1.5 million portfolio supports an initial withdrawal of about $60,000 under the 4% rule.